The big day is finally here. After months of careful tracking, monitoring polling data, and dissecting the effect of candidates’ messages, tonight we will start getting some real answers. There are essentially three scenarios. First, if the polls have been overestimating Trump support, we could see Harris ever so slightly outperforming her numbers, leading to a small but decisive win. Second, we could see Trump overperform his numbers. He flips a state like Michigan or Wisconsin, leading to a strong electoral college victory. Both of these scenarios depend on the polling data being off by a few percentage points. In these scenarios, we still may not have a result on election night, but we will have a result shortly after.

The last scenario is that the polls are spot on. This means we are in for a long few days, perhaps even weeks. Georgia officials said yesterday it could take them up to two weeks to finish counting their votes. Pennsylvania has made no meaningful changes to the way they process their ballots since 2020, so once again we could see them take quite a while to finish counting their vote. In a razor-thin election, 100 percent of the vote will need to be counted to determine a winner.

After the final count, we move into the period where campaigns may ask for recounts. Any state outcome where a candidate wins by less than one percent will likely trigger a recount. This will add a significant amount of time to the process. Things will get messy. State courts will get involved. Cases may even get appealed to the Supreme Court. All of this will result in significant delays to the outcome of the Presidential race.

Happy Election Day friends. Here are the final polls.

Arizona: Trump +2.8

Nevada: Trump +0.6

Wisconsin: Harris +0.4

Michigan: Harris +0.5                                                                                              

North Carolina: Trump +1.2

Georgia: Trump +1.3

Pennsylvania: Trump +0.4

The Presidential race is reaching the big finish line, and all seven swing states are within the statistical margin of error. This means we may not have a result on Election Night. Trump holds slight leads in every state except for Michigan, with his strongest states being Arizona and Georgia. Nevada, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania are also trending towards Trump, but by razor-thin margins.

If these polling averages reflect reality, networks will be unable to project a winner until a high percentage of the vote (maybe all of it) is counted. It could take several days to finish counting the votes in states like Pennsylvania. On the other hand, we may see a candidate break away on Election Night. If the polls are underestimating voter turnout for either campaign, it may not be as close of a race as it appears. We will not have to wait much longer to find out. Only six days to go.

Arizona: Trump +2.5

Nevada: Trump +0.5

Wisconsin: Trump +0.6

Michigan: Harris +0.5                                                                                              

North Carolina: Trump +1

Georgia: Trump +2.4

Pennsylvania: Trump +0.6

2024 Latest Election Polls and Political Insights | RealClearPolling

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Polls are snapshots of the past. In the aggregate, they can give us a sense of direction. In an election as close as this one, small changes stand out. In the Real Clear Polling averages below, you can see that Harris no longer leads in any swing state. The margins are close, but there appears to be a slight shift to Trump in the past few weeks. Pollsters have made corrections to their models based on past inaccuracies. We will soon find out how accurate their current models are.

Arizona: Trump +1.8

Nevada: Trump +0.9

Wisconsin: Trump +0.4

Michigan: Trump +1.2                                                                                              

North Carolina: Trump +0.4

Georgia: Trump +2.5

Pennsylvania: Trump +0.8

National: Harris +1.1

2024 Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Harris | RealClearPolling

Less than three weeks away from Election Day, Harris is seeing her polling numbers tighten. If the election were held today and the polling data is accurate, Trump would win 302 electoral votes. A clear and decisive victory. The path to the Presidency for Harris becomes nearly impossible without Michigan. Pennsylvania is also crucial. Both states are showing very narrow Trump leads. In this week’s polling snapshot, you can see Harris has a lead in only one state, Wisconsin, and by less than half a point. Each state is within the margin of error, however, so it is hard to say with a lot of confidence who has the lead.

In close elections where the candidates are polling tightly, ground game and voter mobilization matters immensely. One thing the Harris campaign has going for them is a structured, well-funded ground game plan. The Harris campaign is employing roughly 2,500 paid staffers to coordinate canvassing efforts, across 353 offices. The Trump campaign is employing some paid staffers, the exact number is unclear, but also relying heavily on Political Action Committees (PACs) such as Turning Point Action, Charlie Kirk’s organization, and America PAC, the Elon Musk-funded super PAC, to lead ground game efforts. Both of these organizations have not led significant voter mobilization efforts before. If Harris outperforms her numbers, it will likely be because of her ability to get voters to the polls.

Arizona: Trump +1.1

Nevada: Trump +0.2

Wisconsin: Harris +0.3

Michigan: Trump +1

North Carolina: Trump +1.4

Georgia: Trump +0.7

Pennsylvania: Trump +0.3

2024 RCP Electoral College Map | RealClearPolling

The Ground Game: Harris’s Turnout Machine vs. Trump’s Unproven Alliance - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

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The polls remain a statistical tie across the swing states, with the big prize, Pennsylvania, deadlocked at Trump +0.2. As election day creeps closer and neither candidate appears to be breaking away, we should prepare ourselves for a long election night with no result. Pennsylvania does not begin the “preprocessing” of mail-in ballots until 7 am on Election Day. Preprocessing entails removing the ballots from their envelopes, checking to make sure they are valid, flattening them, and setting them aside to be counted. Pennsylvania is one of only four states that does not allow this process to start until the polls open on Election Day. This is one reason we saw significant delays in the 2020 election.

Pennsylvania has not changed its process, and while I expect there to be fewer mail-in ballots this time around because we are no longer in the middle of a pandemic, it could still take quite a while for the votes to be counted. If the election result comes down to Pennsylvania, and the state remains essentially tied, every one of those mail-in votes will matter. If nothing changes, prepare yourself for not having a result on Election Night.

Arizona: Trump +1.4

Nevada: Harris +1.1

Wisconsin: Harris +0.8

Michigan: Harris +0.5

North Carolina: Trump +0.6

Georgia: Trump +1.5

Pennsylvania: Trump +0.2

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An escalation of tensions in the Middle East, catastrophic weather damage in a swing state, and a dock workers strike are significant issues that will hang over the campaigns moving into the campaign’s final weeks. These events seem more likely to influence the state of the race than last night’s Vice Presidential debate, which gave Americans a closer look at the running mates but is unlikely to move the dial significantly with undecided voters.

The race remains statistically tied. If this trend continues until Election Day the candidates’ ground game for getting voters to the polls may play a significant role in who makes it across the finish line. The Harris campaign has been pouring money into their ground game efforts across the swing states, while the Trump campaign appears to be relying more on third-party groups to do the fieldwork. In close elections, turnout becomes essential for winning.

Arizona: Trump +2.1

Nevada: Harris +1.1

Wisconsin: Harris +0.4

Michigan: Harris +1.4

North Carolina: Trump +0.7

Georgia: Trump +1.5

Pennsylvania: Trump +0.1

Republicans are starting to raise alarms about Trump’s ground game

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With the polls as close as they are, any movement at all gets our attention. Trump has good news coming out of Arizona where a NY Times/Siena poll found him +5. Arizona is interesting because Trump won it by +4 in 2016, but he narrowly lost it to Biden in 2020. This poll, along with several others, indicates that Arizona may be moving solidly into Trump’s column. The same is true for Georgia, which appears to be steadily trending in Trump’s direction.

Something to watch moving into next week will be North Carolina. The Republican Party’s candidate for Governor, Mark Robinson, is embattled in a rather disgusting pornography scandal, and polling indicates him trailing his opponent by double digits. What remains to be seen is if this pulls down the Republican ticket overall in North Carolina. With Trump only up by half a percentage point there, he needs his voters to stay enthusiastic enough to show up on election day. Meanwhile, the Harris campaign is making the most of the moment by releasing an ad showing Trump repeatedly praising Robinson.

Arizona: Trump +2.2

Nevada: Harris +0.4

Wisconsin: Harris +1

Michigan: Harris +1.8

North Carolina: Trump +0.5

Georgia: Trump +2.1

Pennsylvania: Harris +0.6

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Happy Constitution Day!

My sincere hope for this election is that the result will be decisive. That whichever candidate wins it will be by a large enough margin that it will not be questioned. That it will not come down to a recount of several hundred ballots in a swing state. The polls are not indicating that my hope will become a reality. The post-debate polls indicate very little movement for either candidate, leaving us with the same razor thin margins as before.

The swing state polls remain essentially the same as they were pre-debate. While post-debate flash polls indicated viewers thought Harris performed better, the debate appeared to have very little impact on likely voters in swing states. This indicates that there may be very little room for movement in these final months of the campaign. With the country sharply divided, many have already made up their mind. It is possible that we will see a few more post-debate polls come out this week that paint a different picture, but for now, the race remains tied.

Arizona: Trump +1.3

Nevada: Harris +1.2

Wisconsin: Harris +1.2

Michigan: Harris +0.7

North Carolina: Trump +0.4

Georgia: Trump +0.2

Pennsylvania: Trump +0.2

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Bonus Constitution Day Trivia: Did you know there are five individual rights found in the 1st Amendment? They are 1) Religion 2) Press 3) Speech 4) Petition and 5) Assembly.

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Harris and Trump remain statistically tied in the polls making tonight’s debate a key moment for either candidate to break away, or falter. Presidential debates do not always move the dial. Historically we have seen quite a few where both candidates walked away essentially in the same place. I expect tonight’s debate to be different because neither candidate has any room to falter.

Trump is more of a known quantity than Harris and is remembered by many for a solid pre-Covid economy. If I was advising him I would tell him to pivot to the economy whenever possible. His weakness is off-hand ugly remarks. These quips may be popular among some of his supporters, but they will not help him with swing state voters. Harris is less known to the general public, and after a shiny debut, voters appear to be giving her a closer look. She needs to give solid policy answers and look presidential, finding the right balance between likable and tough. This debate may be a crucial turning point in the 2024 race.

Arizona: Trump +1.6

Nevada: Harris +0.6

Wisconsin: Harris +1.5

Michigan: Harris +1.2

North Carolina: Trump +0.1

Georgia: Trump +0.3

Pennsylvania: Tie

2024 Latest Election Polls and Political Insights | RealClearPolling

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One More Thing: I will be doing post-debate analysis and discussing key stand-out moments from past presidential debates with historian Dr. Charles McCoy on this week’s Politics in Perspective Podcast. Tune in on Friday for our conversation!

Politics in Perspective Podcast Series - Apple Podcasts

I have seen dozens of headlines this week touting Harris’s lead in the polls. These headlines all refer to her taking the lead in nationwide polling. The Real Clear Polling average has Harris up by +1.9 percentage points. However, we know that the popular vote does not elect the President, it all comes down to the states, and the swing states we have been following are incredibly tight.

Harris has taken a small lead in Georgia. This is a slight change in trend from previous weeks that had Trump up by 1%.  Nevada has also changed from a small Trump lead to a small Harris lead. It is difficult to read too much into these changes however because they are well within the margin of error. Bottom line: the race is tied. Next week Harris and Trump will share a debate stage, which will allow each candidate an opportunity to break away. For now, the race remains tied.

Arizona: Trump +1

Nevada: Harris +0.6

Wisconsin: Harris +1.4

Michigan: Harris +1.1

North Carolina: Trump +0.7

Georgia: Harris +0.1

Pennsylvania: Tie

It has been one month since Biden dropped out of the presidential race. The week before Biden’s withdrawal Trump led in every single swing state. Three of the states: North Carolina, Nevada, and Arizona were starting to creep outside of the margin of error. Today, Harris leads in two states, and Trump’s margins have dwindled. Democrat enthusiasm for Harris has heavily impacted the race. This enthusiasm on the Left has been coupled with a lack of message discipline from the Trump campaign, resulting in a major shift in momentum.

With the DNC going strong this week in Chicago the big question is whether there is space left for the Harris numbers to grow. Typically presidential candidates get a small bump (+1-3% points) in the polls following their conventions. With the unusual events of the summer already providing a boost to the Democratic nominee, will there still be the usual bump?

Here is where the swing states stand today:

Arizona: Trump +0.2

Nevada: Trump +1.4

Wisconsin: Harris +1

Michigan: Harris +2

North Carolina: Trump +1.2

Georgia: Trump +1

Pennsylvania: Trump +0.2

2024 Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Harris | RealClearPolling

The Democrat ticket has had a boost. Since the big Harris shakeup on July 21^st, we’ve had a good amount of new polling data and all of it points to an upward trend for the Democrats. The race is still a close one, however, and there are reasons to tread lightly with this new polling data. New candidate enthusiasm is a powerful thing, but it can also fade with the candidate’s first misstep. Democrats are excited about their candidate for the first time in a good long while and this is clearly impacting the polls. The big question is: how long will this hold?

Kamala has owned the news cycle since she stepped into her role at the top of the ticket and she has kept the momentum going this week with her pick of Tim Walz for VP. If the DNC convention is executed well, she’ll keep this momentum going into next week as well. It will be the last part of August when things calm down for Democrats and we may have a better picture of the true state of the race going into September. Then it’s only a quick two months until the election. Here’s where we are right now:

Arizona: Trump +2.8

Nevada: Trump +4

Wisconsin: Harris +0.5

Michigan: Harris +2

North Carolina: Trump +3

Georgia: Trump +0.6

2024 Georgia: Trump vs. Harris | RealClearPolling

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The switch from Biden to Harris has shaken up the election, and we are starting to get enough polling data to see how she looks against Trump in key battleground states. This is also one time when Real Clear Polling averages are not giving us an accurate picture of the race, because many of their averages still include Biden/Trump matchups. Just this once, I’ll use the most recent polls from Bloomberg/Morning Consult instead.  We’ll return to Real Clear Polling averages (which is useful because it controls for outliers) again after the Biden data drops off.

What you’ll see below is a changed race. Harris has flipped the direction of five states: Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Georgia. She has created energy among Democrats excited about her candidacy and dominated every news cycle since July 21st. What remains to be seen is if she can sustain this energy, and if she can create any additional cross-over appeal for moderate Republicans, and independents.

Arizona: Harris +2 (Bloomberg/MrnConsult)

Nevada: Harris +2 (Bloomberg/MrnConsult)

Wisconsin: Harris +2 (Bloomberg/MrnConsult)

Michigan: Harris +11 (Bloomberg/MrnConsult)

Pennsylvania: Trump +4 (Bloomberg/MrnConsult)

North Carolina: Trump +2 (Bloomberg/MrnConsult)

Georgia: Tie (Bloomberg/MrnConsult)

Bloomberg-Swing-State-Wave-10.pdf (morningconsult.com)

I’d love to hear your thoughts after this big shakeup! Tell me what you think in the comments.

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There has been a significant shift in the direction of the Presidential election since the debate two weeks ago. The debate took the wind out of Biden’s sails, possibly for good. However, Trump did not open up double-digit leads. As polarized as we are right now, this contest was always going to be determined at the margins, and it looks like it still may be. The problem for the Biden campaign is that Trump’s margins have gotten bigger.

Trump leads in all seven swing states listed below. Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina are starting to move outside of the margin of error. This tells us it is unlikely the polling is capturing the voter’s sentiment incorrectly. Other states are still within the margin of error, but moving in the wrong direction for Biden. Trump has the momentum of the debate, and his historic fist-pumping moment after the assassination attempt, to propel him into the fall. I don’t anticipate Trump’s choice of J.D. Vance to expand his numbers, but that is another thing to watch in the coming weeks. The window for Biden’s numbers to change course is starting to close. This is a big part of the reason some Democrats are encouraging Biden to step aside.

Arizona: Trump +5.7

Nevada: Trump +5

Wisconsin: Trump +3

Michigan: Trump +0.4 (5-Way), Trump +1.3 (2-way)

Pennsylvania: Trump +4.5

North Carolina: Trump +5.4

Georgia: Trump +4

Trump and Biden will debate this Thursday night, in what will likely be a key moment in the 2024 race. This debate will be unusual for several reasons. It will be the first time that two men who have held the office of President of the United States are on the debate stage together. There are only two other times in history where former Presidents have run for office a second time, Teddy Roosevelt and Grover Clevland, both before the modern television debate era. With both Biden and Trump having White House experience, their track records will be open to criticism.

The last time these men faced off in 2020, Trump interrupted Biden continuously. The interruption strategy provided an effective way of preventing Biden from having any big moments. In fact, one of Biden’s only memorable moments of the night was when he said “Will you shut up man.” The interruptions also made the debate nearly unwatchable. This time CNN has adopted two rules that will change the dynamic of the debate. They will cut off each candidate’s microphone if they speak when it is not their turn, and there will be no audience. Of course, both candidates will still be able to hear interruptions because of their proximity to each other in the room. So while this rule may be very helpful, it won’t entirely prevent the candidates from hearing each other and being thrown off their game. This is especially worrisome for Biden whose mental focus has been the subject of much scrutiny.

I know I’ve promised these Topline reports will only be two paragraphs –but just one more quick note, I’ve added Minnesota to the list of battleground states to watch. Minnesota has gone blue in the last two election cycles, but Biden’s numbers are narrowing there, so it’s becoming a state to watch.

Arizona: Trump +4.6

Nevada: Trump +5.7

Wisconsin: Trump +0.3

Michigan: Trump +0.1 (5-Way), Trump +0.2 (2-way)

Pennsylvania: Trump +2.3

North Carolina: Trump +5.3

Georgia: Trump +5

Minnesota: Biden +3

All polling numbers come from Real Clear Polling. I am using the 2-way race statistics in every state except for Michigan, where I also show the 5-way polling that includes RFK Jr.

Donald Trump turns 78 today, the same age as Joe Biden when he first assumed office in 2021. Trump and Biden are the oldest candidates in U.S. history. Before this, Ronald Reagan held the title of oldest U.S. President. He was 69 when he was sworn into office. The average age of a U.S. President is 55. In case you are wondering who the youngest were —Teddy Roosevelt (42) and John F. Kennedy (43) won those titles. Teddy was the youngest President ever to assume office when he took over for McKinley, and JFK was the youngest ever elected.

The swing state polls remain largely unchanged from last week. The candidates are neck and neck. The impact of Trump’s NYC verdict is not yet reflected in these numbers. If there is any significant impact, we may start to see it in next week’s polling data. The first Presidential debate is now less than two weeks away and a particularly good (or bad) performance by either candidate may shake things up.

Arizona: Trump +4.4

Nevada: Trump +5.3

Wisconsin: Trump +0.1

Michigan: Tie (5-Way), Trump +0.3 (2-way)

Pennsylvania: Trump +2.3

North Carolina: Trump +5.3

Georgia: Trump +4.8

All polling numbers come from Real Clear Polling. I am using the 2-way race statistics in every state except for Michigan, where I also show the 5-way polling that includes RFK Jr.

Polling Data

Ages of U.S. Presidents -IPSOS

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Last Thursday Donald Trump was found guilty of falsifying documents by a NYC jury. The big question after this verdict is –will it impact the race? Polls are a lagging indicator, so we can’t expect any immediate answer on this. It will take several weeks to get good information on whether this verdict impacts the race, and if so, in which direction. One hypothesis is that the felony conviction will hurt Trump with undecided voters. Another is it may energize reluctant Republicans who view the trial as principally unfair.

I anticipate that the verdict will have a minimal impact on the polls. Trump is a known quantity and most voters have already formed an opinion about him, one way or another. However, even a small shift in uncommitted voters would make a significant difference. This race will likely be decided at the margins, by suburban voters, in swing states. At this point, the numbers are tight enough that even a small shift may make a big difference.

Arizona: Trump +4

Nevada: Trump +5.4

Wisconsin: Trump +0.1

Michigan: Tie (5-Way), Trump +0.5 (2-way)

Pennsylvania: Trump +2.3

North Carolina: Trump +5.3

Georgia: Trump +4.8

All polling numbers come from Real Clear Polling. I am using the 2-way race statistics in every state except for Michigan, where I also show the 5-way polling that includes RFK Jr.

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Closing statements are taking place today in Trump’s Manhattan criminal trial. The case will be in the hands of the jury as soon as Wednesday. It is unlikely a guilty verdict will negatively affect Trump’s polling numbers, but this is uncharted territory, so we will have to wait and see. Many Americans seem uninterested in the trial. A recent YouGov/Yahoo news poll found that only 16% of Americans are following the trial “very closely.” [1]

On the other hand, an acquittal would bolster Trump’s claims of unfair prosecution and possibly give him a slight boost of momentum moving into the summer months. As it stands today, Trump is maintaining his small lead over Biden in most battleground states. Wisconsin and Michigan are statistical ties.

Arizona: Trump +4

Nevada: Trump +5.4

Wisconsin: Trump +0.1

Michigan: Biden +0.1 (5-way), Trump +0.3 (2-way)

Pennsylvania: Trump +2.3

North Carolina: Trump +4.8

Georgia: Trump +4.8

All polling numbers come from Real Clear Polling. I am using the 2-way race statistics in every state except for Michigan, where I also show the 5-way polling that includes RFK Jr.

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[1] yahoo_trump_20240513 | PDF | Politics Of The United States | American Government (scribd.com)

Mark your calendars for June 27^th and September 10^th for this year’s presidential debates. The June 27^th debate will be hosted by CNN in their Atlanta studio, without an audience. They will also leave out the Commission on Presidential Debates, which has organized these events for the past forty years but has fallen out of favor with both Biden and Trump. At this time the debates will not include RFK Jr.

The Republicans are set to hold their Party convention in Milwaukee in July, while Democrats will meet in Chicago in August. It is at these conventions that the presumptive nominees officially accept their nominations. It is unusual to have a scheduled debate before the official nominating conventions take place. It is also worth noting that just because the debates are scheduled, it doesn’t mean that they will take place. Trump backed out of a scheduled presidential debate in 2020.

The polling numbers remain the same from last week. Trump has a small lead in most states.

Arizona: Trump +5.2

Nevada: Trump +6.2

Wisconsin: Trump +0.6

Michigan: Biden +0.3 (5-way), Trump +0.8 (2-way)

Pennsylvania: Trump +2

North Carolina: Trump +5.4

Georgia: Trump +4.6

All polling numbers come from Real Clear Polling. I am using the 2-way race statistics in every state except for Michigan, where I am looking at the 5-way that includes RFK Jr.

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Trump has been maintaining his small lead over Biden in most swing states. Michigan is the one battleground state where Biden has taken a small lead when you include RFK Jr. in the polling. Looking at Real Clear Polling’s 5-Way average that includes independent candidates, Trump’s small lead in Michigan vanishes, and Biden creeps ahead by +0.3 percentage points. As a quick reminder, most polls include a 3-5% “margin of error” which means the number they report could be either plus or minus that amount. If you look at the polling data for this week, you’ll notice only Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina are outside of the margin of error.

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Michigan is the only battleground state where RFK Jr. is currently on the ballot. He is still struggling to obtain ballot access in the other states. This makes Michigan an interesting state to watch. Many political analysts have speculated that RFK Jr.’s candidacy would hurt Biden. The polls indicate this may be true in Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Georgia. The only state where Trump appears slightly hurt by RFK Jr.’s candidacy is Michigan where, importantly, he has ballot access

The big takeaway this week is that Trump maintains a small lead over Biden in most swing states, but it is still within the statistical margin of error, and Michigan is a state to watch.

Arizona: Trump +5.2

Nevada: Trump +6.2

Wisconsin: Trump +0.6

Michigan: Biden +0.3 (5-way), Trump +0.8 (2-way)

Pennsylvania: Trump +2

North Carolina: Trump +5.4

Georgia: Trump +4.6

All polling numbers come from Real Clear Polling. I am using the 2-way race statistics in every state except for Michigan, where I am looking at the 5-way that includes RFK Jr.

Real Clear Polling Michigan 5-Way Average